Five years ago, Valero Energy $VLO shares were trading around $59 each. Today, January 30, 2026, it's closed at $181.43—a strong 194% rise that reflects its position as one of the largest independent refiners in the world, turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and chemicals while also expanding into renewable diesel. The chart shows a clear long-term upward trend from 2022 lows, with consistent gains through 2024–2025, and a 52-week high of $194.50 showing the stock is near its strongest recent levels.

In simple terms, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years is 24.1%. That's the average yearly increase—calculated by raising the total growth factor to the 1/5 power and subtracting 1. It means growing your money by about 24% each year, on average.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) makes this easy and disciplined: Invest $500 every month for five years, totaling $30,000. This buys more shares when prices are lower and fewer when they're higher, which helps smooth out the natural ups and downs of an energy stock. Projecting forward at the same historical CAGR, with a monthly growth rate of about 1.81% from $181.43, your position grows steadily.

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After 60 months, your portfolio could reach approximately $54,800. That's a gain of about $24,800—a 83% return on your invested capital. The earliest contributions benefit most from compounding, while later ones still participate in the overall upward trend.

This projection follows historical performance, which does not guarantee future results. Refining stocks like VLO are sensitive to crude oil prices, crack spreads (refining margins), geopolitical events, demand for transportation fuels, and the pace of the energy transition toward renewables. The current P/E ratio of 37.77 reflects solid earnings expectations, and the 2.65% dividend yield provides reliable quarterly income ($1.20 per share).

With a $55.34B market cap and the 52-week high of $194.50 still very close, VLO remains a major player in the refining space. If you're comfortable with energy sector risks and believe in the company's ability to navigate changing markets, DCA lets you participate consistently without trying to time oil prices. Your steady $500 monthly investments could build a meaningful position by 2031. Keep the tank topped off?